12/13/2023 0 Comments Fangraphs swing and miss percentage![]() ![]() ![]() It’s that simple question - one that characterizes the most basic element of the game - that I’d like to answer in what follows. For example, a question like: On any given offering from a pitcher to a batter, how likely is the pitcher in question to record a swinging strike? But even beginning with such a simple premise, it’s already possible to ask questions that require considerable rigor to answer accurately. The batter wants to hit the pitcher wants him not to hit. That’s really the essence of the game at its most basic level. The batter, meanwhile, wants to swing and make contact with the pitch.” (via M&R Glasgow)Īlthough the minutiae of baseball is frequently analyzed in painstaking detail, at some level it remains a simple game. When teaching the game to kids (or in my case, some European and Asian friends who have never seen the game before), we likely begin with an explanation like this: “The pitcher throws the ball to the batter, and he wants the batter to swing and miss at the pitch. But first, let’s make sure it’s repeatable.Pitchers who can induce swinging strikes are more valuable than those who cannot. If you were valuing a pitchers’ ability to get called strikes pre 2021, then you likely rostered a few of these pitchers and hopefully, you did well.Īs you prep for 2022, you may be able to gain an edge using CStr%. But, according to Fantasy Pros ADP, he was the 24th pitcher off the board in most leagues with an average ADP of 78. He scored the 12th highest in FanGraphs points among all starters! That’s a little different in a points league but still really great. I had him rostered in one of my Ottoneu leagues and he was awesome. When I first started writing this I thought I was going to focus on just Berríos. None of these pitchers finished the season at the top of their class, but they all did pretty well. Joe Musgrove – 15th K, 14th WHIP, 14th ERA, 23rd W Hyun-Jin Ryu – 31st K, 26th WHIP, 32nd ERA, 11th W José Berríos – 14th K, 12th WHIP, 20th ERA, 20th W Does that mean high CStr% pitchers with good stuff should be valued a little higher this offseason? Let’s look at how the top five CStr% starting pitchers (qualified) finished from a fantasy perspective in 2021:Īdam Wainwright – 25th K, 10th WHIP, 11th ERA, 2nd W Getting to the point now, if you’re going to be a pitcher who lives in the zone, you have to have good stuff. Berríos on the other hand was doing this: When Ryu was trying to place a good changeup in the zone, he missed or gave up contact. In 2020, Berríos changeup was valued at 1.1, and in 2021 it soared up to 4.2. These two pitches went in opposite directions. In 2020, Ryu’s changeup PVal was excellent at 7.0. Many fantasy managers may be wondering what happened to Ryu in 2021 and the key is in his changeup. But, Ryu put the ball in the zone less often. The only telling difference here is that hitters made more contact out of the zone on Ryu than they did Berríos. But, looking at some of the underlying statistics we see very little difference between the two: Ryu – 169 IP, 143 K, 4.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.02 FIPįrom those lines, Berríos looks much better. If we refocus our attention on 2021’s qualified starting pitchers and we compare Hyun-Jin Ryu and José Berríos, we see that these two pitchers finished the year in a similar fashion.īerrios – 192 IP, 204 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.47 FIP Some pitchers might get hit pretty hard, others may be able to limit contact, or perhaps, limit quality contact. But, if you are doing it more and more often, hitters are likely to pick up on that and start taking hacks. If you can throw curveballs and changeups in the zone that fool hitters, you’re going to bump up your called strike rate. Is called strike rate related to the value of a breaking pitch? Maybe. Many of them have a positive PValon their curveballs (Wainwright, Espino, Hill, Freeland, Berríos) or a positive PVal on their changeup (Gonzalez, Matz, Lopez, Ryu) and some have both. If we look back at the pitchers in the first table, we can start to develop some commonalities amongst the pitchers on the list. But, none of this really pops off the page. It has some correlation with CSW, Alex Fast’s new metric that encompasses both called strikes and whiffs. Called strike rate has a large negative correlation with the zone swing rate. ![]()
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